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Research · 2 March 2026

Understanding our returns: retail sportsbooks vs. exchanges

The ROI figures we publish are calculated on retail sportsbook odds. Here is what that means, why exchange and sharp book returns differ, and how to read our data correctly.

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Every ROI figure EdgeXI publishes (the 117% IPL three-year average, the 133% overall average across all five leagues) is calculated using odds available at retail sportsbooks.

That matters. Here is why.

What the ROI figure means

A result of 0% is breakeven. A result of 117% means that for every 100 units staked across the season, the strategy generated 117 units of net profit, returning a total of 217 units.

The strategy is simple: flat-stake, every recommendation, head-to-head winner market only. No parlays. No exotic combinations. No bet-sizing variation between fixtures. The season is the unit of measurement.

Retail sportsbooks vs. exchanges

The betting market divides broadly into two categories.

Retail sportsbooks (Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes) operate on a fixed-odds model. The company sets a price, you accept or decline. Margins are typically wider, meaning the odds offered are slightly below the true probability. For most recreational bettors, retail sportsbooks are where they operate.

Exchange platforms and sharp books (Betfair, Pinnacle) work differently. Betfair matches bettors against each other, taking a small commission. Pinnacle is a sharp bookmaker that accepts high-volume, sophisticated bettors and adjusts lines quickly. Both operate with tighter margins. The prices are more efficient reflections of true probability.

The difference has a direct consequence for EdgeXI's ROI figures.

Why exchange returns are lower

When the models identify an edge, that edge exists relative to the published odds. At retail sportsbooks, those odds have more slack built in. The same model output, applied to tighter exchange or Pinnacle prices, produces a smaller return.

This is not a flaw in the models. It is simply the difference between the two market types.

Here are the three-year Betfair figures compared to retail:

Tournament Retail avg (3-yr) Betfair avg (3-yr)
IPL 117% 66%
CPL 105% 65%
BBL 142% 76%
WBBL 155% 65%
Super Smash 144% 74%

Both sets of figures are positive. Both represent a profitable strategy over a three-year sample. The Betfair figures are materially lower, and that gap is consistent across all five leagues.

Which figures apply to you

If you bet on Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, or a comparable retail sportsbook, the headline ROI figures are the relevant benchmark.

If you bet primarily on Betfair or Pinnacle, the Betfair figures in the table above are the correct reference. A 66% three-year average on IPL head-to-head markets is still a positive expected return. It is a meaningfully different number, and it is right to understand it clearly.

Staking large amounts on exchanges and sharp books compresses returns further, as line movement absorbs volume. If you operate at that scale, factor this in.

What hasn't changed

The underlying models do not change based on which platform you use. The recommendation is the same. The edge identification is the same. The difference is entirely in how much of that edge the odds provider passes on to you.

EdgeXI publishes retail figures as the headline because the majority of subscribers bet on retail platforms. Both datasets are now available here in full.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. All historical figures are from internal tracking and predate independent Tipstrr verification. IPL 2026 is the first season with independent timestamped verification on Tipstrr.com before each match.

Past performance disclaimer

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical IPL head-to-head ROI figures (2023: 98%, 2024: 135%, 2025: 117%) are based on internal tracking only and predate independent Tipstrr verification. IPL 2026 predictions will be EdgeXI's first independently verified record.

EdgeXI provides statistical research and probabilistic analysis, not financial advice. The information published does not constitute a recommendation to place any specific bet. You are responsible for your own betting decisions. Please gamble responsibly.